The Presidency says it expects a better
economic outlook for Nigeria during this
second half of the year. Read a statement
released from the presidency below...
The just released GDP figures for the 2016
second quarter by the National Bureau of
Statistics while confirming a temporary
decline, has also indicated an hopeful
expectation in the country's economic
trajectory.
Besides the growth recorded in the agriculture
and solid mineral sectors, the Nigerian
economy in response to the policies of the
Buhari presidency is also doing better than
what the IMF had estimated with clear
indications that the second half of the year
would be even much better.
The Buhari presidency will continue to work
diligently on the economy and engage with all
stakeholders to ensure that beneficial policy
initiatives are actively pursued and the
dividends delivered to the Nigerian people.
The following statement was made by the
Special Adviser to the President on Economic
Matters, Dr. Adeyemi Dipeolu on the latest
NBS report:
"The just recently released data from the
National Bureau of Statistics showed that
Gross Domestic Product declined by -2.06% in
the second quarter of 2016 on a year-on-year
basis.
A close look at the data shows that this
outcome was mostly due to a sharp
contraction in the oil sector due to huge
losses of crude oil production as a result of
vandalisation and sabotage.
However, the rest of the Q2 data is beginning
to tell a different story. There was growth in
the agricultural and solid minerals sectors
which are the areas in which the Federal
Government has placed particular priority.
Agriculture grew by 4.53% in the second
quarter of 2016 as compared with 3.09% in
the first quarter. The metal ores sector showed
similar performance with coal mining,
quarrying and other minerals also showing
positive growth of over 2.5%. Notably also,
the share of investments in GDP increased to
its highest levels since 2010, growing to about
17% of Gross Domestic Product.
The manufacturing sector though not yet truly
out of the woods is beginning to show signs
of recovery while the service sector similarly
bears watching.
Nevertheless, the data already shows a
reduction in imports and an increase in local
produced goods and services and this process
will be maintained although it will start off
slowly in these initial stages before picking up
later.
The inflation rate remains high but the good
news is that the month-on-month rate of
increase has fallen continuously over the past
three months.
Unemployment remains stubbornly high which
is usually the case during growth slowdowns
and for reasons of a structural nature.
The picture that emerges, barring unforeseen
shocks, is that the areas given priority by the
Federal Government are beginning to respond
with understandable time lags to policy
initiatives. Indeed, as the emphasis on capital
expenditure begins to yield results and the
investment/GDP numbers increase, the growth
rate of the Nigerian economy is likely to
improve further.
As these trends continue, the outlook for the
rest of the year is that the Nigerian economy
will beat the IMF prediction of -1.8% for the
full year 2016.
The IMF had forecasted a growth of -1.8% for
2016, however the economy is performing
better than the IMF estimates so far. For the
half year it stands at -1.23% compared to an
average of -1.80% expected on average by the
IMF.
What is more, it is likely the second half will
be better than the first half of 2016. This is
because many of the challenges faced in the
first half either no longer exist or have eased.
Laolu Akande
Senior Special Assistant-Media & Publicity
August 31, 2016
In the Office of the Vice President
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